File size: 17,522 Bytes
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7dff677
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7dff677
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
778ab74
b72652e
 
 
 
1f734ca
b72652e
 
1f734ca
 
 
 
 
 
b72652e
1f734ca
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
54ac3b6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
54ac3b6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
778ab74
b72652e
 
778ab74
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
778ab74
 
 
 
 
b72652e
 
 
c7cf7cd
 
 
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
 
c7cf7cd
 
 
 
b72652e
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
b72652e
 
 
 
54ac3b6
b72652e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
c7cf7cd
b72652e
c7cf7cd
 
b72652e
c7cf7cd
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
b72652e
 
 
778ab74
b72652e
c7cf7cd
b72652e
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
from fastapi import FastAPI, HTTPException
from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware
from pydantic import BaseModel
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import os
import time
import xgboost as xgb
from ddgs import DDGS
from textblob import TextBlob
import pathlib

app = FastAPI(
    title="FairValue Strategic AI API",
    description="Investor-ready Player Valuation Engine"
)

# Fixed: allow_credentials=True is a CORS spec violation when allow_origins=["*"].
# Browsers silently reject credentialed requests to wildcard origins.
app.add_middleware(
    CORSMiddleware,
    allow_origins=["*"],   # Tighten to Vercel domain after first deploy
    allow_credentials=False,
    allow_methods=["*"],
    allow_headers=["*"],
)

ACCESS_CODES_PATH = pathlib.Path(__file__).parent / "access_codes.csv"

class CodeRequest(BaseModel):
    code: str

@app.post("/api/validate-code")
async def validate_code(req: CodeRequest):
    """
    Validates a secret access code against the local CSV database.
    Each code is restricted to a maximum of 15 uses.
    """
    # Always allow master bypass code
    if req.code == "FairValue-103":
        return {"status": "success", "message": "Master bypass active"}

    if not os.path.exists(ACCESS_CODES_PATH):
        raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail="Access database unavailable")

    try:
        df = pd.read_csv(ACCESS_CODES_PATH)
        df['code'] = df['code'].astype(str)
        
        if req.code not in df['code'].values:
            raise HTTPException(status_code=403, detail="Invalid access code")

        row_idx = df.index[df['code'] == req.code].tolist()[0]
        current_uses = int(df.at[row_idx, 'uses'])

        if current_uses >= 15:
            raise HTTPException(status_code=403, detail="Access code expired (max 15 uses reached)")

        # Increment and persist
        df.at[row_idx, 'uses'] = current_uses + 1
        df.to_csv(ACCESS_CODES_PATH, index=False)

        return {
            "status": "success", 
            "uses_remaining": 15 - (current_uses + 1)
        }
    except HTTPException:
        raise
    except Exception as e:
        raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=f"Database error: {str(e)}")



@app.get("/")
def health_check():
    """Required by Render to confirm the service is alive."""
    return {
        "status": "healthy",
        "model_loaded": model_global is not None,
        "data_loaded": df_global is not None,
    }


@app.get("/api/players")
def get_players(q: str = ""):
    """
    Returns unique player names from the training database.
    Accepts an optional ?q= filter for autocomplete.
    The React frontend uses this to power the player search input.
    """
    if df_global is None:
        return {"players": []}
    name_col = next(
        (c for c in ["name", "name_x", "Player_Name", "Name"] if c in df_global.columns),
        None,
    )
    if not name_col:
        return {"players": []}
    all_names = df_global[name_col].astype(str).dropna().unique()
    if q:
        all_names = [n for n in all_names if q.lower() in n.lower()]
    return {"players": sorted(all_names)[:100]}


@app.get("/api/scout")
async def scout_player(player: str, club: str = "", interested_club: str = ""):
    """
    Standalone NLP-only intelligence endpoint — used by the Live Intel page.
    Does NOT run the ML model, just returns 3-axis DDGS sentiment scores.
    Shares the same 1-hour TTL cache as the full /api/evaluate endpoint.
    """
    if not player.strip():
        raise HTTPException(status_code=422, detail="player query param is required")
    nlp = _fetch_nlp_intelligence(player.strip(), club.strip(), interested_club.strip())
    return {
        "player": player,
        "durability": nlp["durability"],
        "recency": nlp["recency"],
        "agent": nlp["agent"],
        "logs": nlp.get("_logs", []),
        "links": nlp.get("_links", []),
        "from_cache": nlp.get("_from_cache", False),
        "nlp_found": nlp.get("_found_any", False)
    }



# ── Currency Config ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
EUR_TO_GBP = 0.85  # Approximate — review quarterly

# ── Path resolution: works locally AND inside the Docker container ─────────────
# Using __file__ means paths are always relative to api/main.py, not cwd.
import pathlib
_ROOT      = pathlib.Path(__file__).parent.parent.resolve()
DATA_PATH  = str(_ROOT / "data" / "processed" / "app_features.csv")
MODEL_PATH = str(_ROOT / "fairvalue_xgboost.json")

# ── Data / Model Globals ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
df_global = None
model_global = None
expected_cols_global = None


@app.on_event("startup")
def startup_event():
    global df_global, model_global, expected_cols_global

    if os.path.exists(DATA_PATH):
        df_global = pd.read_csv(DATA_PATH)
        mv_rename_map = {
            col: 'market_value_in_eur'
            for col in df_global.columns
            if 'market' in col.lower() and 'value' in col.lower()
        }
        if mv_rename_map:
            df_global.rename(columns=mv_rename_map, inplace=True)
        df_global = df_global.loc[:, ~df_global.columns.duplicated()].copy()

    if os.path.exists(MODEL_PATH):
        model_global = xgb.XGBRegressor()
        model_global.load_model(MODEL_PATH)
        expected_cols_global = model_global.feature_names_in_

def _format_feature_label(f: str) -> str:
    """Converts raw model feature names to boardroom-ready English."""
    mapping = {
        'Highest_Market_Value_In_Eur': 'Peak Historical Valuation',
        'Highest MarketValue In Eur': 'Peak Historical Valuation',
        'Contract_Years_Left': 'Contractual Duration',
        'Contract YearsLeft': 'Contractual Duration',
        'Injury_Days_Total_24m': 'Physical Availability Risk',
        'Injury Days Total 24M': 'Physical Availability Risk',
        'League_Index': 'League Quality Index',
        'height_in_cm': 'Aerial/Physical Profile',
        'Height In Cm': 'Aerial/Physical Profile',
        'international_caps': 'International Experience',
        'market_value_in_eur': 'Baseline Market Valuation',
    }
    # Fallback to Title Case with underscores replaced by spaces
    return mapping.get(f, f.replace('_', ' ').title())


# ── NLP Intelligence Cache (TTL = 1 hour) ────────────────────────────────────
# Fixed: previously ran 3 live DDGS searches on every API call — caused
# rate-limiting errors and high latency. Now cached per player+club for 1 hour.
_nlp_cache: dict = {}
_NLP_CACHE_TTL = 3600  # seconds


def _fetch_nlp_intelligence(
    player_name: str, current_club: str, interested_club: str
) -> dict:
    """
    Returns DDGS sentiment scores for durability, recency, and agent axes.
    Results are cached per player+club combination for 1 hour to prevent
    rate-limiting and reduce API latency.
    """
    cache_key = f"v2|{player_name.lower()}|{current_club.lower()}"
    cached = _nlp_cache.get(cache_key)
    
    # Logic: If we have a cached result with real data, keep it for 1 hour.
    # If the cached result was "Empty" (no news found), allow a retry after 5 mins.
    if cached:
        age = time.time() - cached.get('_ts', 0)
        has_signals = cached.get('_found_any', False)
        
        if age < _NLP_CACHE_TTL:
            if has_signals or age < 300: # 300s = 5 mins
                return {**cached, '_from_cache': True}

    ddgs = DDGS()
    axes = {
        'durability': f"{player_name} {current_club} injury status games missed medical",
        'recency':    f"{player_name} {current_club} recent form impact stats",
        'agent':      f"{player_name} {current_club} transfer rumors {interested_club} fee",
    }
    scores = {'durability': 0.0, 'recency': 0.0, 'agent': 0.0}
    logs = []
    scraped_links = []

    found_any = False
    for axis, query in axes.items():
        try:
            # Increase results to 10 for better sentiment spread
            snippets = list(ddgs.text(query.strip(), max_results=10))
            
            # Fallback: if no results, try a broader search without the clubs
            if not snippets:
                fallback_query = f"{player_name} {axis} news"
                snippets = list(ddgs.text(fallback_query, max_results=5))
            
            if snippets:
                found_any = True
                sentiments = []
                for r in snippets:
                    title = r.get('title', '')
                    href = r.get('href', '')
                    body = r.get('body', '')
                    sentiments.append(TextBlob(body + ' ' + title).sentiment.polarity)
                    if href and href not in [lnk['url'] for lnk in scraped_links]:
                        scraped_links.append({"title": title, "url": href})
                        
                avg_pol = sum(sentiments) / len(sentiments) if sentiments else 0.0
                scores[axis] = float(avg_pol)
                logs.append(f"Scraped {axis}: Polarity {avg_pol:.2f} ({len(snippets)} results)")
            else:
                logs.append(f"No results for {axis} (Primary & Fallback)")
        except Exception as e:
            logs.append(f"Failed {axis}: {str(e)}")

    # Deduplicate and limit to top 10 links
    scraped_links = scraped_links[:10]
    result = {**scores, '_ts': time.time(), '_logs': logs, '_links': scraped_links, '_from_cache': False, '_found_any': found_any}
    _nlp_cache[cache_key] = result
    return result


# ── Request Schema ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
class PlayerEvaluateRequest(BaseModel):
    selected_name: str
    position: str = "Midfielder"
    current_club: str = ""
    interested_club: str = ""
    contract_years: float = 2.0
    age: int = 24
    injuries_24m: int = 10
    asking_price: float = 45.0
    market_value_estimation: float = 20.0


@app.post("/api/evaluate")
async def evaluate_player(req: PlayerEvaluateRequest):
    if df_global is None or model_global is None:
        raise HTTPException(
            status_code=500,
            detail="Model or data not loaded on startup. Check server logs."
        )

    name_col = next(
        (c for c in ['name', 'name_x', 'Player_Name', 'Name'] if c in df_global.columns),
        None
    )

    player_data = df_global.median(numeric_only=True).to_frame().T
    if name_col and req.selected_name in df_global[name_col].astype(str).tolist():
        player_data = df_global[
            df_global[name_col].astype(str) == req.selected_name
        ].iloc[0:1].copy()

    player_data['Contract_Years_Left'] = req.contract_years
    player_data['Age'] = req.age
    if 'Injury_Days_Total_24m' in player_data.columns:
        player_data['Injury_Days_Total_24m'] = req.injuries_24m
    if 'market_value_in_eur' in player_data.columns:
        player_data['market_value_in_eur'] = (
            req.market_value_estimation * 1_000_000
        ) / EUR_TO_GBP

    X_infer = player_data.reindex(columns=expected_cols_global, fill_value=0)

    raw_preds = model_global.predict(X_infer)
    log_pv = float(raw_preds[0])
    baseline_pv = max(float(np.expm1(log_pv)), 0.0)
    baseline_pv_m = baseline_pv / 1_000_000
    conservative_bound_m = baseline_pv_m * 0.85

    # ── Extract SHAP Values for UI Chart ──────────────────────────────────────
    dmatrix = xgb.DMatrix(X_infer)
    shap_contribs = model_global.get_booster().predict(dmatrix, pred_contribs=True)[0]
    feature_shaps = shap_contribs[:-1]  # Last element is the SHAP base value

    # ── Position-Specific Career Pathing (Dynamic Aging Curves) ───────────────
    pos = req.position.lower()
    age_multiplier = 1.0
    
    if "forward" in pos or "striker" in pos or "winger" in pos or "attacker" in pos:
        # Attackers peak early (24-27), decline steeply after 30
        if req.age <= 23: age_multiplier = 1.25
        elif req.age >= 30: age_multiplier = 0.75
    elif "defender" in pos or "goalkeeper" in pos or "gk" in pos or "cb" in pos:
        # Defenders/GKs peak late (28-32), sustain longer
        if req.age <= 23: age_multiplier = 1.05
        elif req.age >= 32: age_multiplier = 0.85
    else: 
        # Midfielders peak 25-29
        if req.age <= 23: age_multiplier = 1.15
        elif req.age >= 31: age_multiplier = 0.80

    # Contract Security Premium
    contract_multiplier = 1.0
    if req.contract_years >= 4.0: contract_multiplier = 1.20
    elif req.contract_years <= 1.0: contract_multiplier = 0.70

    structural_multiplier = age_multiplier * contract_multiplier
    
    # ── Re-evaluating Intrinsic vs Baseline ──────────────────────────────────
    # Apply structural multipliers to the raw ML baseline to correct the "Youth Penalty" bias in the data.
    adjusted_baseline_pv_m = baseline_pv_m * structural_multiplier
    
    # Talent is the baseline WITHOUT the age/contract multipliers
    talent_pv_m = baseline_pv_m 
    
    # Positive = Appreciation (added value). Negative = Depreciation (lost value).
    status_impact_m = adjusted_baseline_pv_m - talent_pv_m

    # ── MTP Calculation (Replaces Flat Risk & Conservative Bound) ─────────────
    # We drop the arbitrary 15% discount and fixed penalties.
    # Instead, we define a probabilistic Market Transaction Price (MTP) range.

    # ── External NLP Intelligence (1-hour TTL cache) ──────────────────────────
    nlp = _fetch_nlp_intelligence(req.selected_name, req.current_club, req.interested_club)
    dur = nlp['durability']
    rec = nlp['recency']
    agnt = nlp['agent']
    logs = nlp.get('_logs', [])
    links = nlp.get('_links', [])

    # Tier-aware hype ceiling prevents NLP from distorting low-value players
    if adjusted_baseline_pv_m > 80.0:
        rec_ceiling_pct = 0.35
        tier_name = "Generational Superstar (>£80m)"
    elif adjusted_baseline_pv_m > 40.0:
        rec_ceiling_pct = 0.25
        tier_name = "Elite Tier (>£40m)"
    elif adjusted_baseline_pv_m >= 10.0:
        rec_ceiling_pct = 0.10
        tier_name = "Core Tier (£10m–£40m)"
    else:
        rec_ceiling_pct = 0.05
        tier_name = "Base Tier (<£10m)"

    dur_adj = min(0.0, dur) * 0.15    # Injury news can only discount
    rec_adj = max(0.0, rec) * rec_ceiling_pct  # Form can only add premium
    agt_adj = min(0.0, agnt) * 0.05   # Agent leverage only discounts

    external_multiplier = 1.0 + rec_adj + dur_adj + agt_adj

    # ── Scarcity Index & Buyer's Premium ──────────────────────────────────────
    # Elite players command a massive scarcity premium. 
    if adjusted_baseline_pv_m > 80.0:
        scarcity_premium = 0.40  # +40% for generational talents
    elif adjusted_baseline_pv_m > 40.0:
        scarcity_premium = 0.15  # +15% for elite
    elif adjusted_baseline_pv_m >= 10.0:
        scarcity_premium = 0.05
    else:
        scarcity_premium = 0.0

    mtp_base = adjusted_baseline_pv_m * external_multiplier
    mtp_lower = mtp_base * 0.90
    mtp_upper = mtp_base * (1.0 + scarcity_premium)
    
    # ── CFO Dashboard (PSR Integration) ───────────────────────────────────────
    # Amortization is capped at 5 years under UEFA/Premier League rules.
    # We assume a standard 5-year new contract for the incoming transfer.
    amortization_years = min(5.0, 5.0) 
    annual_amortization_cost = req.asking_price / amortization_years

    # ── SHAP Feature Contribution Table ──────────────────────────────────────
    shap_data = sorted(
        [
            {"feature": _format_feature_label(f), "impact": float(s)}
            for f, s in zip(expected_cols_global, feature_shaps)
        ],
        key=lambda x: abs(x['impact']),
        reverse=True,
    )[:10]

    return {
        "ledger": {
            "fiv": talent_pv_m,
            "category": tier_name,
            "depreciation": status_impact_m,
            "baseline_value": adjusted_baseline_pv_m,
            "external_multiplier": external_multiplier,
            "mtp_lower": mtp_lower,
            "mtp_upper": mtp_upper,
            "scarcity_premium": scarcity_premium,
        },
        "cfo_dashboard": {
            "asking_price": req.asking_price,
            "amortization_years": amortization_years,
            "annual_amortization_cost": annual_amortization_cost,
        },
        "nlp_results": {"durability": dur, "recency": rec, "agent": agnt},
        "nlp_cached": nlp.get('_from_cache', False),
        "nlp_found": nlp.get('_found_any', False),
        "logs": logs,
        "links": links,
        "shap_data": shap_data,
    }